Project PostdokGrant APD0069
Duration of the project: 1.7.2024-31.12.2025
Principal investigator:
Mgr. Jakub Šrol, PhD.
Annotation:
Research on belief in conspiracy theories documents many adverse consequences of this phenomenon, including reduced political participation and interpersonal trust and support for non-normative and even violent forms of social behavior. At the same time, the increased current interest of the media and the public in this issue may have created a false perception that conspiracy beliefs are more widespread in society than what the results of representative population surveys actually demonstrate. Therefore, the project aims to explore the false consensus effect – the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share similar opinions as ourselves – and perceived norms in relation to belief in conspiracy theories. Based on two initial studies, I will attempt to replicate the findings that people generally overestimate how many others believe in conspiracy theories and that belief in conspiracy theories is associated with even higher rate of this overestimation and I will expand these findings by examining possible psychological correlates of the false consensus effect. In a subsequent experimental study, I will examine whether an experimental manipulation of the perceived norm – providing information that a greater or smaller number of people believe in a particular conspiracy theory – influences belief in conspiracy theories. Based on these findings, I will develop and test an intervention aimed at reducing belief in conspiracy theories through correcting the perceived norm in this area. Including various individual variables (e.g., overconfidence, self-esteem, and social media usage) will allow both the examination of correlates of the false consensus effect in the context of belief in conspiracy theories and the testing of the moderating influence of these variables on the effectiveness of experimental manipulations. Consequently, recommendations can be formulated for the most effective targeting of interventions on groups of people with different characteristics. If it proves effective, the tested intervention could provide a basis for a relatively quick, cost-effective, and easily adaptable method for public institutions to communicate in order to reduce belief in selected conspiracy theories in society.
Key words: social norms; false consensus effect; conspiracy beliefs
